Vuelta: Menchov out, who'll win?
Published by Halverde on 9/07/2006 at 23:32.
We often marvel at the unique ability of the Vuelta organisers to create a race route that's equal parts bewildering and exciting. To be able to design a parcours that consistently results in the final stage deciding the overall winner, yet still not being able to understand that taking the riders in a straight line along a closed motorway is a bit naff... well, that takes a very special kind of mind.
Despite us not giving it very much coverage, the Vuelta has been trundling along with its fingers in its ears to block out all the doping badness for 12 stages now. And it's been an absolute cracker of a race so far. With three potentially decisive mountain stages already behind us (as well as a flat stage that actually featured a bend in the road), the distance between Valverde's lead and Kashechkin's second place is still a mere 27 seconds. To give you a sense of scale as to how small that is, it's roughly the same amount of time as Tyler Hamilton spent thinking up his "phantom twin" defence. Tiny.
The race will take a further step towards giving us an insight into who could be a potential winner during Saturday's short time trial, but in the meantime here are the latest betting odds for the win.
Alejandro Valverde
The Green Bullet lived up to his nickname during this week's two summit finishes (well, half his nickname -- he's not green). First he took a stage win from Vino, sprinting for the line as though it were completely flat, then he dropped everyone bar Vino when he tried to do the same two days later. Since he picked up his race leader's jersey his team has played the old "dump a rider in the breakaway and tell the other teams you're not going to do any work to pull it back" routine on every stage, simultaneously making Caisse d'Epargne the least popular team in the whole peleton AND keeping his riders fresh for the hills. But he's lost stage races over shorter time trials than the ones he'll face in the remaining stages of the Vuelta, it's all still to play for.
Betting odds: 4/5
Alexandr Vinokourov
Surprisingly, the stocky Kazahk has suddenly found himself second favourite to win the entire race overall, despite sitting in a lowly fifth position on the general classification. Vino displayed his famed predilection towards acting unilaterally on stage 9, when he broke away with Kashechkin, then a mere 17 seconds behind Valverde, seemingly under the guise of intending to catapult his compatriat and team mate into the leader's jersey. Then he dug deep, dropped his team mate and held off for the finish line to become a "contender". We're not convinced, but with two time trials to come and his confidence still through the roof, those odds must look pretty tempting.
Betting odds: 7/2
Andrei Kashechkin
For about ten minutes, Kashechkin must've thought that Vinokourov was actually going to act unselfishly during this year's Vuelta. Sadly not. Despite the fact that Kashechkin had a huge lead over him in the overall, Vino decided he was still the team leader and put the hurt down. The odds, too, have decided that Vino is still the team leader. Poor Kashechkin. Even when Vino has retired and become a DS, he'll probably still try to outsprint his team's riders at every race to prove that he's the best. Get out of Astana while you can, Andrei, or you'll always be number two.
Betting odds: 6/1
DerailedUK and Betfair are now offering YOU the opportunity to make money from your cycling knowledge. Or take a risk and trust our less-than-reliable judgement. Either way, the best odds are at Betfair. Winners always welcome at Betfair!
Tomorrow -- the odds for Sastre, Gomez and Brajkovic to win. Unless this format proves incredibly unpopular (it will).
Despite us not giving it very much coverage, the Vuelta has been trundling along with its fingers in its ears to block out all the doping badness for 12 stages now. And it's been an absolute cracker of a race so far. With three potentially decisive mountain stages already behind us (as well as a flat stage that actually featured a bend in the road), the distance between Valverde's lead and Kashechkin's second place is still a mere 27 seconds. To give you a sense of scale as to how small that is, it's roughly the same amount of time as Tyler Hamilton spent thinking up his "phantom twin" defence. Tiny.
The race will take a further step towards giving us an insight into who could be a potential winner during Saturday's short time trial, but in the meantime here are the latest betting odds for the win.
Alejandro Valverde
The Green Bullet lived up to his nickname during this week's two summit finishes (well, half his nickname -- he's not green). First he took a stage win from Vino, sprinting for the line as though it were completely flat, then he dropped everyone bar Vino when he tried to do the same two days later. Since he picked up his race leader's jersey his team has played the old "dump a rider in the breakaway and tell the other teams you're not going to do any work to pull it back" routine on every stage, simultaneously making Caisse d'Epargne the least popular team in the whole peleton AND keeping his riders fresh for the hills. But he's lost stage races over shorter time trials than the ones he'll face in the remaining stages of the Vuelta, it's all still to play for.
Betting odds: 4/5
Alexandr Vinokourov
Surprisingly, the stocky Kazahk has suddenly found himself second favourite to win the entire race overall, despite sitting in a lowly fifth position on the general classification. Vino displayed his famed predilection towards acting unilaterally on stage 9, when he broke away with Kashechkin, then a mere 17 seconds behind Valverde, seemingly under the guise of intending to catapult his compatriat and team mate into the leader's jersey. Then he dug deep, dropped his team mate and held off for the finish line to become a "contender". We're not convinced, but with two time trials to come and his confidence still through the roof, those odds must look pretty tempting.
Betting odds: 7/2
Andrei Kashechkin
For about ten minutes, Kashechkin must've thought that Vinokourov was actually going to act unselfishly during this year's Vuelta. Sadly not. Despite the fact that Kashechkin had a huge lead over him in the overall, Vino decided he was still the team leader and put the hurt down. The odds, too, have decided that Vino is still the team leader. Poor Kashechkin. Even when Vino has retired and become a DS, he'll probably still try to outsprint his team's riders at every race to prove that he's the best. Get out of Astana while you can, Andrei, or you'll always be number two.
Betting odds: 6/1
DerailedUK and Betfair are now offering YOU the opportunity to make money from your cycling knowledge. Or take a risk and trust our less-than-reliable judgement. Either way, the best odds are at Betfair. Winners always welcome at Betfair!
Tomorrow -- the odds for Sastre, Gomez and Brajkovic to win. Unless this format proves incredibly unpopular (it will).
